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Date Posted: April 10, 2008.
"Information obtained through March 2008 indicates that the 2008 Atlantic
hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season"
says experts Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of Department of
Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO.
The group in their April 9, release estimates that during the period June 1
to Nov. 30, 2008 there will be a total 15 named storms in the Atlantic
surpassing the average of 9.6. Eight of these storms are expected to become
hurricanes and as many as 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes are predicted.
In total the group anticipates 80 named storm days with at least 40 hurricane
days during the season. Their numbers are up from forecasts made in December
2007.
"The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about
135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical
Cyclone
(NTC) activity in 2008 to be approximately 160 percent of the long-term
average." says the report. The very-active, 2005 season saw tropical
cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the average season.
The report also cites above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the
Caribbean. Summarised details are below:
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
- Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last
century is
31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44%
(average
for last century is 30%)
- Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
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